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I think this comment – “my gut tells me! Considering it’s size, I feel compelled to listen to it’s opinions!” – is going to join the pantheon of all-time best Going Deep comments : )

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I don’t know. It is merely my opinion also known as speculation… but my gut… my gut tells me! Considering it’s size, I feel compelled to listen to it’s opinions!

😀

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Honestly, I think this specific exchange highlights the “Knowing what We Don’t Know” theme of this entire series.

Is there a chance that Ben Roethlisberger will retire after 2017?

Yes there is. We know that because he has contemplated retiring in past years in private and this year publicly discussed it. How great or how small that retirement chance is something that few in the public eye can do more than speculate on.

What do I mean by this?

Well, you’ve said, “There’s a small chance he’ll return.”

Honestly, and respectfully, I ask “How do you know that?”

There’s evidence to suggest his talk was serious (Willie Colon’s comments, the length of time Ben took to make a decision, the fact that he’s got kids and is thinking about being able to recognize them when he’s in his 40’s).

There’s also evidence to suggest that he’ll be back. Ben role as a drama queen is well known. There’s the $ and there’s his competitive streak. There’s also the fact that when he first uttered the “R” word, people with well-established sources in the organization said that the powers that be expect him to play out his contract.

Unless someone has access to Ben himself and/or people who Ben confides in, any prediction is little more than speculation.

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I do admit there is a small chance Ben will not retire but I view it as such a small chance that his continuing to play will be a great surprise for me.

“The bottom line is that the Steelers as an organization will have a hard time when Ben retires. Trying to get back-to-back franchise quarterbacks is about as difficult as threading a needle on a rollercoaster.”

I agree entirely with this statement. That is why I think it will be such a challenge for Tomlin. Succeeding without a franchise QB is very difficult.

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I don’t know that we can safely assume that Ben will retire after this season. IT is just too early to say. I do think that if the Steelers win the Super Bowl, the chances of him retiring are in fact going to be pretty high. Ditto if he suffers a serious injury or say a monster concussion.

Ben’s public talk of having to take time to decide if he would return is apparently no different than what he has done in years past. The fact is that any player at his age is going to be on a year-to-year basis.

His comments at OTA’s do not sound like someone who is in the mode of “Thinking about retirement, therefore should retire” to quote Chuck Noll’s famous line.

One also need to remember, that Ben Roethlisberger is hyper competitive and has or has been driven by wanting to win more Super Bowls than any other active quarterback or any other Steelers quarterback. Realistically, his chances of catching or tying Tom Brady ended with the AFC Championship loss and NE’s comeback against Atlanta.

But tying Terry Bradshaw is still a realistic possibility if the Steelers bring home Lombardi number 7 this year.

There’s also the fact that Ben is scheduled to make another 24 million in 2018 and 2019.

The bottom line is that the Steelers as an organization will have a hard time when Ben retires. Trying to get back-to-back franchise quarterbacks is about as difficult as threading a needle on a rollercoaster.

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Let me add one point that should have gone with part 4 but didn’t make it, and that concerns personnel issues.

People have attacked Mike Tomlin for some of the draft failures during his tenure. And let’s be clear, some of the early personnel moves that clearly have Tomin’s finger prints on them haven’t worked out so well. I’m thinking Sean Mahan, Allen Rossum, and trading up to get Daniel Sepulveda.

With that said, Mewelde Moore and Will Allen were closely linked to Tomlin, and both were strong, albeit under the radar pickups.

But other than that, we really don’t know how the decision making process there works, nor do we know where Kevin Colbert’s authority ends and Tomlin’s begins, (nor can we be sure what role Dan or Art II played.)

Yet that doesn’t stop come critics from opining that “Tomlin has more authority over picks than Cowher did….” Never mind that Cowher was seen as wanting more personnel authority than he had with Tom Donahoe.

He got that to some degree, but Kevin Colbert’s influence was clear almost the moment he arrived (for what its worth, the Steelers went into the 2000 off season looking only to resign MIke Tomzack, yet let him walk and picked up Kent Graham instead. Those developments only happened after Colbert was hired.)

We also know that assistant coaches also have some serious input in this process. (See Jeremy Fowler’s point on Tomlin asking Arians if he wanted to take “That guy from Central Michigan” when Antonio Brown got picked. Or see Jim Wexell’s comment that Bruce Arians had no interest in building the offensive line.)

But we don’t know how far this input extends.

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Unless he does something truly foolish, I will be very surprised if Tomlin doesn’t end up in the HoF.

I also expect next season will be the most challenging in Tomlin’s career (even more so than the 2010 season when the, iirc, very beat up Steelers lost to the beat up but recovering Packers in the SB) as I expect Ben will retire at the end of this season. Ben has taken an incredible beating over the years and the fact he is considering retirement means it is time to retire.

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